A Bibliometric Study of Shoreline Change Trends and Future Predictions (1991–2022): Insights and Implications
ABSTRACT
Kilar, H. and Aydin, O., 2025. A bibliometric study of shoreline change trends and future predictions (1991–2022): Insights and implications.
Shoreline changes are caused by both natural and human activities. The ability to predict these changes is critical for successful coastal management strategies. This study provides a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of shoreline change and future prediction research conducted from 1991 to 2022. Using the Web of Science database, 2068 articles were analyzed, with the 100 most cited publications examined in detail. The analysis used the Bibliometrix R package and the biblioShiny module for network mapping, identifying dominant themes such as coastal erosion, shoreline change, prediction, forecasting, and geospatial technologies like remote sensing, GIS, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). The findings of the study indicate a significant rise in publications from 2004 to 2010, peaking at nine publications in 2010. However, from 2010 onward, a decline is observed at varying rates, with a particularly sharp decrease after 2019. Furthermore, although shoreline prediction studies were not among the most frequently cited works, tools like DSAS have become increasingly important within the field. The findings also underscore the interdisciplinary nature of shoreline research, which bridges environmental science, engineering, and technological innovation. The Journal of Coastal Research emerged as the most influential journal, with the highest number of citations and a Hirsch index of 13. As a result, this study offers insights into the development, prevailing trends, and interdisciplinary scope of shoreline change research, serving as a foundation for future investigations and more effective coastal management strategies.
INTRODUCTION
Coastal environments, particularly shorelines, are dynamic systems that undergo continuous changes because of natural and anthropogenic forces (Aydın and Uysal, 2014; Jayakumar and Malarvannan, 2016; Kumaravel et al., 2013). Shoreline changes are primarily driven by processes such as sediment transport, sea-level rise, and storm surge impacts, which can result in the alteration of shorelines over short or long periods (Anthony, 2015; Deepika, Avinash, and Jayappa, 2014; Muskananfola and Febrianto, 2020; Özpolat and Demir, 2019). As coastal regions worldwide face increasing pressure from human activities (Barik et al., 2019; Nayak, 2002), understanding these changes and monitoring coastal zones have become a critical area of research. Accurate monitoring and prediction of shoreline movements are essential for the sustainable management of coastal areas, disaster risk reduction, and environmental conservation (Dai et al., 2019; Liu and Jezek, 2004; Liu, Sherman, and Gu, 2007).
In recent decades, technological advancements in remote sensing and GIS have enabled researchers to analyze shoreline changes with greater precision (Chenthamil Selvan, Kankara, and Rajan, 2014; Ciritci and Türk, 2019; Kankara et al., 2015; Kılar and Çiçek, 2018; Makota, Sallema, and Mahika, 2004; Matin and Hasan, 2021; Palanisamy et al., 2024; Salman et al., 2022). The use of satellite imagery, multispectral data, and specialized tools such as the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) have transformed both the collection and the interpretation of shoreline data (Abou Samra and Ali, 2021; Alharbi et al., 2023; Hossen and Sultana, 2023; Kılar and Aydın, 2024; Murray et al., 2023; Siyal et al., 2022). These technologies also enable the forecasting of future shoreline positions, providing critical support for effective coastal management strategies (Aladwani, 2022; Besset, Anthony, and Bouchette, 2019; Chrisben Sam and Gurugnanam, 2022; Kılar and Aydın, 2024).
Bibliometric studies offer a method for analyzing research trends in shoreline change and future prediction, helping to identify key contributions, influential authors, and emerging topics within the field (Ankrah, Monteiro, and Madureira, 2022; Apostolopoulos and Nikolakopoulos, 2021; Cavalli, 2024; Rahman, Crawford, and Islam, 2022). Ankrah, Monteiro, and Madureira (2022) conducted a bibliometric analysis using the Bibliometrix R package and the VOSviewer tool to examine 1578 scientific documents published between 1968 and 2022, retrieved from the Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases. Cavalli (2024) reviewed 502 key studies selected from more than 15,000 papers published between January 2021 and June 2023, offering a comprehensive overview of 103 coastal phenomena and 39 parameters that can be effectively mapped and monitored using remote sensing data. Apostolopoulos and Nikolakopoulos (2021) evaluated a meta-analysis of 138 studies from the past 20 years, focusing on the most commonly used methods, materials, software, and indices for evaluating shoreline evolution. Rahman, Crawford, and Islam (2022) conducted bibliometric analysis of 905 research articles from 2000 to 2021 that focus on shoreline change detection using geospatial techniques such as remote sensing and GIS.
This study makes a meaningful contribution by offering a systematic bibliometric evaluation of the expanding body of research on shoreline change and future prediction. Through the analysis of 2068 articles published between 1991 and 2022 and a focused examination of the 100 most cited works, it presents an evidence-based overview of the field’s intellectual development. By integrating bibliometric and citation analyses, the research identifies prevailing themes, influential methodologies, and key knowledge gaps. Moreover, this study also emphasizes the growing importance of predictive modeling tools, particularly remote sensing technologies and DSAS, in understanding and forecasting shoreline dynamics. The inclusion of thematic mapping and temporal trend analysis further reveals the evolution of research priorities and highlights the interdisciplinary nature of shoreline studies. As a result, the findings provide a strategic, data-driven foundation to guide future research efforts toward more accurate, innovative, and sustainable coastal zone management practices.
METHODS
This study was conducted using the WoS database (Clarivate, 2025), a distinguished citation indexing system that includes comprehensive and high-quality scientific publications. WoS stands out as a globally recognized and reliable source, encompassing journals, conference proceedings, books, and datasets. This resource, which includes approximately 34,000 scientific journals, provides a foundation for the systematic and impartial analysis of research outputs (Birkle et al., 2020). The WoS database served as the data source for this study because of its high indexing standards and methodological consistency in bibliometric analyses. As a result, the findings of this study exclude certain relevant studies indexed in other international databases, such as Scopus and Google Scholar. This study relies on secondary bibliometric data, encompassing publication titles, keywords, author information, institutional and national affiliations, source journals, citation numbers, and the years of publication. The aims of this research are to examine trends in shoreline change and future prediction within the literature and to compile a comprehensive and representative set of publications that enables systematic analysis of key studies in this field.
From the past to the present, GIS and similar analytical approaches have served as a significant methodological foundation in shoreline change research. In this context, the Dolan, Fenster, and Holme (1991) study “Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Recession and Accretion” stands out as one of the early applications in this field. This study evaluates how different factors and computational methods, particularly the end point rate, affect the accuracy of shoreline rate of change estimates. Following this methodological advancement, a notable increase has been observed in the use of GIS and remote sensing technologies in shoreline change studies. In this regard, the scope of the study has been limited to literature published between 1991 and 2022.
Data Collection
The data collection involved a detailed search strategy using two sets of keywords. These keywords aimed to capture literature focusing on shoreline change, coastal erosion, and predictive modeling:
ALL FIELDS (“geographic information system” OR “GIS” OR “remote sensing” OR “RS” OR “satellite image” OR “predict*” OR “forecast*” OR “future” OR “multispectral image”)
ALL FIELDS (“shoreline chang*” OR “coastline chang*” OR “shoreline monitor*” OR “shoreline detect*” OR “coastal erosion” OR “DSAS” OR “kalman*” OR “Google Earth Engine” OR “sentinel” OR “Landsat”)
The search was conducted on 1 October 2024, yielding 2068 relevant articles. Conference proceedings, book chapters, and editorial letters were excluded from the scope of the study. The selected studies were ranked in descending order based on their citation counts, and the top 100 articles with the highest total citation counts were included in the study. The publications identified during the screening process were carefully evaluated to ensure their alignment with the objectives of the study. When the abstract and/or title information was insufficient, full-text access to the relevant publications was obtained to verify their content. Figure 1 presents a flowchart containing detailed information about the article selection process.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Data Analysis Process
In this study, the most cited articles were selected and included in the analysis process. The normality of the data was assessed using the Shapiro-Wilk test; because of the lack of normal distribution, the Mann-Whitney U test was employed for comparative analyses. The relationship between publication age and citation performance and the correlation between total citation count and citation density were examined using the Pearson correlation coefficient method. The dataset used in the statistical analyses was divided into three distinct periods—1991–2001, 2002–12, and 2013–22—to evaluate temporal trends. For each period, the total citation counts and the citation density of the articles were analyzed. These assessments not only provide insight into the scientific impact of research on shoreline change but also illuminate how this impact has evolved over the years. The findings obtained through temporal analysis provide an opportunity to better understand the periodic scientific impact of the literature and to examine the structural changes in research trends more clearly.
The bibliometric analyses conducted in this study were performed using the open-source Bibliometrix R package (K-Synth, 2025), accessed through RStudio and developed in the R programming language. The analysis process was structured through the biblioShiny module, which provides a visual and interactive interface for the package. In the application, the methodological framework developed by Aria and Cuccurullo (2017) was followed, and the analysis proceeded in accordance with the recommended steps. The flowchart presented in Figure 2 shows the overall workflow of the bibliometric process. This approach has provided a foundation for evaluating the development of research activities in the field of shoreline change. The most influential studies, authors, and journals were found using citation and cocitation analyses, which also revealed connections between publications and the formation of research clusters in the field. Furthermore, a keyword analysis employing co-occurrence techniques revealed emerging research topics and dominant themes, providing insight into the thematic structure of shoreline change studies.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
RESULTS
This study conducted a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of shoreline change and predictive modeling research from 1991 to 2022. The key findings, including trends in publications, dominant research themes, geographic and disciplinary distribution, citation patterns, influential contributions, and emerging and niche areas of focus, are explained and discussed in this section.
Analysis of Published Documents
Figure 3 shows the yearly publication trend in shoreline change research, based on the 100 most cited articles. There is a clear increase in the number of studies published between 1991 and 2022, although the pace of growth varies across different periods. In the 1990s, interest in shoreline change was relatively limited, with only one or two publications during most years, except for a small peak in 1998 when four articles were published. This low output likely reflects the limited use of GIS, remote sensing, and DSAS. One early example of methodological study was conducted by Dolan, Fenster, and Holme (1991) and marks an important step in the development of the research area. At the beginning of the 2000s, the number of published articles remained low. In 2007, the number of articles reached five for the first time, followed by three in 2008 and five again in 2009. The peak publication number was nine in 2010, which is the highest number of annual total scientific publications in this field. This growth is closely linked to access to high-resolution satellite imagery, powerful data processing platforms like Google Earth Engine, and widespread use of tools like DSAS. In addition, global attention on environmental issues such as climate change, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion during this period played a major role in boosting interest and research activity in shoreline change (Gao et al., 2023; Nidhinarangkoon et al., 2023; Villagrán, Gómez, and Martínez, 2022). In 2013 and 2014, the number of publications stayed relatively high at eight published articles each year. However, after this period, a downward trend began. From 2015 to 2019, publication numbers varied between five and seven per year. In 2020, the number of publications declined to three, followed by two in 2021 and a single article in 2022. This decline is likely linked to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly affect fieldwork and slowed research activities and project development (Braga et al., 2022; Cavalli, 2024). However, the decline in publications may also be linked to a shift in research focus toward more holistic approaches, interdisciplinary studies, and different geographic scales. Structural factors such as changes in research funding priorities, a sense of methodological saturation in the field, and shifts in environmental policy may also have contributed. In this context, the decrease in shoreline change research likely reflects not only a change in scientific interest but also broader transformations in institutional and financial support systems (Apostolopoulos and Nikolakopoulos, 2021). As a result, the yearly distribution of the most cited publications on shoreline change from 1991 to 2022 demonstrates how technological advancement, increased data accessibility, and growing environmental threats have influenced scientific research in this field.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Distribution of Research Articles across WoS Categories
Table 1 presents the distribution of articles across various WoS categories. The geosciences multidisciplinary category leads with 44 articles out of the total 100 articles. The high level of interest in this field is a comprehensive approach to geology, geomorphology, climate science, and environmental processes. Moreover, this category is the most favored in the relevant literature, because it encompasses both fundamental scientific research and applied studies, making it a focal point for interdisciplinary approaches. The second most important multidisciplinary category is environmental sciences, which contains 32 articles, indicating a strong interest in environmental issues. The interest stems primarily from the critical role of environmental impacts on natural systems, such as shoreline change (Dolan, Fenster, and Holme, 1991), coastal erosion (Coca and Ricaurte-Villota, 2022), sea-level rise (Davidson-Arnott, 2005), and climate change (Scavia et al., 2002), which are overwhelmingly included in this category. In this context, the environmental sciences literature has become an important source of reference for risk assessments and policy development processes involving coastal systems. The oceanography category contributes significantly to the literature with 24 articles and it aimed to understand physical processes in coastal environments. In addition, the geography physical category accounts for a substantial portion of the literature, with 23 articles, highlighting the frequent use of spatial analyses and physical geography–based approaches in research. The remote sensing category, with 18 articles, highlights the growing use of remote sensing technologies in research. Smaller yet notable contributions come from engineering ocean (13 articles), engineering civil (12 articles), and imaging science photographic technology (12 articles). The categories of water resources (10 articles) and marine freshwater biology (8 articles) round out the table, reflecting focused research on water and marine biology topics. In conclusion, the distribution of articles across WoS categories shows that the research is primarily focused on geosciences multidisciplinary, environmental sciences, and oceanography. Nonetheless, it shows that there are significant contributions in various engineering and technological categories, including geography physical, remote sensing, engineering ocean, and engineering civil. This distribution clearly reflects the interdisciplinary nature of shoreline change and future prediction research, as well as the growing scientific interest in environmental issues.
Most Cited Publications
The number of citations a publication receives is widely acknowledged as an important indicator of its significance in its research field and potential interdisciplinary impact (Vidal et al., 2022). In shoreline change and future prediction research, analyzing the most highly cited studies allows the identification of pivotal contributions that have shaped the field’s development, as well as insight into the core topics addressed by these influential works. Table 2 summarizes the most cited studies that focused on the use of spatial technologies for shoreline change and future prediction, highlighting the effectiveness of the employed methodologies and emphasizing the interdisciplinary contributions that have significantly advanced the field. Dolan, Fenster, and Holme (1991) had 413 citations their article “Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Recession and Accretion.” This study introduced the Digital Shoreline Mapping System and DSAS as new tools for accurately mapping historical shorelines using maps and aerial photographs. It highlighted their ability to calculate shoreline change rates and improve the precision and efficiency of coastal mapping processes within a GIS environment. A study by Crowell, Leatherman, and Buckley (1991), titled “Historical Shoreline Change: Error Analysis and Mapping Accuracy” received 398 citations. In this study, methods for the collection, analysis, and computation of coastal erosion rates were evaluated using historical shoreline data. It emphasized the importance of data standardization, accuracy, and error assessment in predicting shoreline change and supporting coastal management programs. Alesheikh, Ghorbanali, and Nouri (2007) received 318 citations for their article titled “Coastline Change Detection Using Remote Sensing.” This study developed a new method based on histogram thresholding and band ratio techniques to detect shoreline changes at Urmia Lake using satellite images. The results showed that the lake’s area decreased by approximately 1040 km2 between August 1998 and August 2001, verified by TOPEX/Poseidon satellite data. The top 10 list in Table 2 concludes with Valvo, Murray, and Ashton (2006), who received 199 citations for their study titled “How Does Underlying Geology Affect Coastline Change?” This study developed a numerical model to investigate the effect of underlying geology on shoreline change. The results showed that although finer-grained materials erode more rapidly, long-term shoreline retreat tends to become more uniform over time. Consequently, the articles listed in the Table 2 represent key contributions to understanding shoreline changes from different perspectives, such as remote sensing technology, error analysis in mapping, and geological factors affecting shoreline evolution. The number of citations reflects the impact and the relevance of these studies in the broader field of coastal research.
Highly Cited Publications
The relationship between publication age and total citation count is presented in Figure 4a. The Pearson correlation coefficient is r = 0.35, indicating a moderate positive correlation between the two variables. The p value obtained from the analysis is 0.00038, which indicates that the relationship is statistically significant (p < 0.001). This situation shows that as the publication age increases, the total number of citations also increases; in other words, older publications continue to maintain their impact in the field by receiving more citations over time. Figure 4b shows the relationship between publication age and citation density (i.e. the average annual number of citations). The Pearson correlation coefficient has been calculated as r = −0.6, which indicates a strong negative relationship between the two variables. In addition, the p value of p = 6.4e − 11 indicates that the relationship is statistically highly significant (p << 0.001). This result shows that as the publication age increases, the annual citation rate decreases significantly. In the field of shoreline change, newly published papers receive more citations in a shorter period, which makes these studies more visible and influential in the current literature. The findings generally indicate that older publications reach high total citation counts over time, making a long-term impact, whereas newer publications create a quicker impact with high citation density in a short period. This trend can be attributed not only to the factor of time but also to the technological transformation in research methods. In recent years, the widespread use of advanced analysis tools such as GIS, remote sensing technologies, and DSAS in shoreline change research has brought both methodological innovation and high accuracy to the studies. These techniques allow faster and more detailed analysis of spatial and temporal changes, increasing the scientific value and practical use of studies. This, in turn, boosts interest in and citations of research that uses modern methods.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Evolving Citation Trends
Table 3 shows a comparison of the number of citations and citation density across three periods (1991–2001, 2002–12, and 2013–22) for the 100 most cited articles. The analysis reveals a notable trend in the citation patterns of academic articles over time. Although the average number of citations per article has decreased from 159.3 in the 1991–2001 period to 86.76 in the 2013–22 period, representing a substantial drop of approximately 46%, this difference is not statistically significant. This suggests that although newer articles have had less time to gather citations, overall citation accumulation has not dramatically changed. More significantly, the citation density has increased substantially. The citation density rose significantly, from 5.37 citations during the 1991–2001 period to 12.61 citations in the 2013–22 period, highlighting that more recent research is being cited at a faster rate. This increase in citation density is statistically significant, highlighting a meaningful shift in how quickly recent articles are gaining recognition. This shift may be attributed to factors such as the widespread accessibility to research through digital platforms, faster dissemination of information, and the growing number of researchers in various scientific fields. In conclusion, although older articles naturally accumulate more citations over time, newer research is experiencing faster recognition and impact, driven by advancements in technology and increased scholarly activity.
Journal Contributions
Figure 5 shows the distribution of research articles across scientific journals within the field of coastal studies. The Journal of Coastal Research stands out with the highest number of articles (13), indicating its prominence as a leading journal for research related to shoreline dynamics. Among the key factors that reinforce its position is not only the journal’s focus on current themes such as shoreline change, erosion, sea-level rise, and integrated coastal management but also its adoption of a publication policy that is open to multidisciplinary studies. This approach, which encompasses disciplines such as geology, geography, climate sciences, engineering, and remote sensing, provides a strong foundation for academic interaction in the field of coastal sciences. In addition, the Journal of Coastal Research is indexed in reputable databases such as WoS and Scopus, allows thematic diversity through special issues published at regular intervals, and reaches a wide audience of researchers through its hybrid publishing model. These features make the journal an ideal publication venue for both fundamental academic studies and applied coastal research. Coastal Engineering follows with 10 articles, reflecting significant focus on the engineering aspects of coastal systems. The journal publishes applied and theoretical studies in coastal engineering, with a focus on topics such as numerical modeling, wave–current interactions, and technical design of coastal structures. Coastal Engineering, published by Elsevier, is indexed in both WoS and Scopus; with its high impact factor and hybrid publishing model, it appeals to a broad academic audience. These qualities support the journal’s position as one of the leading publication sources technically focused on shoreline change and prediction research. Marine Geology ranks next with seven articles, emphasizing the importance of geological processes in understanding shoreline changes. The journal prioritizes hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary studies that cover topics such as sediment dynamics, paleoclimate reconstructions, and coastal morphodynamics. The journal publishes research on observational data, modeling approaches, and sedimentary archive analyses, as well as emerging research areas such as human-influenced coastal and marine geology. Marine Geology, published by Elsevier, is indexed in major databases like WoS and Scopus and increases its presence in the literature through a hybrid publishing model. These features contribute to the journal’s status as one of the preferred publication venues for studies examining the long-term evolution of coastal systems from a geological standpoint. Journals such as the International Journal of Remote Sensing, Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, and Geomorphology also play notable roles, each contributing multiple articles, which displays the interdisciplinary nature of the field. In addition, the presence of publications in the journals Remote Sensing of Environment and Environmental Monitoring and Assessment highlights the growing reliance on technological tools and environmental monitoring in coastal research. In conclusion, Figure 5 indicates that shoreline change and future prediction studies are concentrated in various scientific disciplines, including environmental sciences, engineering, geology, remote sensing, and geomorphology. This diversity reflects the development of multidimensional scientific approaches aimed at understanding the complex nature of coastal systems.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Interconnections among Key Terms, Leading Authors, and Technological Advances
The three-field plot graph in Figure 6 illustrates the interconnected relationships among key terms, leading authors, and research descriptors in coastal studies. The most prominent terms in research titles include coastal, shoreline, response, analysis, and change, reflecting a strong focus on coastal dynamics, particularly in relation to shoreline changes and environmental responses. Terms like beach, mapping, prediction, and variability further emphasize the use of mapping and analytical methods to predict and understand coastal evolution. Key authors such as I.L. Turner, N. Chandrasekar, A.K. Bhattacharya, and H. Fath are heavily linked to these research areas, demonstrating their significant contributions. The descriptors highlight important topics like coastal erosion, shoreline change, and Landsat, showing the central role of erosion studies and satellite-based shoreline detection in coastal research. Technological tools, particularly remote sensing and DSAS, are frequently associated with this work, reflecting their growing use in measuring and predicting shoreline changes. The graph underscores that coastal research is an interdisciplinary field focused on understanding shoreline variability and erosion through advanced predictive models and technological methods. As a result, Figure 6 displays the significant contributions of key researchers and the importance of evolving technologies in advancing the study of coastal processes.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Leading Contributors: Insights from Author Contribution Frequency
Figure 7 presents the contribution frequency of various authors in shoreline studies. I.L. Turner leads with the highest contribution, represented by a value of six, indicating a significant impact in the field. Prominent contributors M.A. Davidson, S.P. Leatherman, R.A. Morton, and K.D. Splinter each have a value of four, reflecting substantial contributions to shoreline change and future prediction research. Authors P.L. Barnard, N. Chandrasekar, M. Crowell, M.D. Harley, and N.G. Plant have a slightly lower value for three, showing that their work is also influential but may cover slightly narrower aspects. As a result, Figure 7 highlights key contributors in the field of shoreline research, with Turner standing out as the most influential, followed by a group of authors whose work has also had a notable impact. This contribution frequency helps to identify leading researchers and their prominence in the study of shoreline dynamics.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Publication Trends and Citation Impact
Figure 8 presents the publication trends and citation impact of key authors in shoreline research, highlighting their contributions over time. I.L. Turner stands out as a particularly influential figure, maintaining a consistent output of publications with a significant rise in citation impact in recent years. His increasing influence is illustrated by larger citation counts in the later years of his career. Similarly, M.A. Davidson has demonstrated steady research productivity, although with a relatively lower citation impact compared with Turner. S.P. Leatherman was highly active in the 1990s, contributing several influential works that continue to be cited. However, his recent impact has diminished, indicating the lasting influence of his earlier research. R.A. Morton follows a different pattern also characterized by early productivity. Recent contributors K.D. Splinter, N. Chandrasekar, and P.L. Barnard are also gaining prominence, with Splinter showing a particularly high citation impact in recent years. M. Crowell has had moderate publication activity, with Crowell’s earlier works continuing to accumulate citations. In addition, M.D. Harley and N.G. Plant are emerging as significant contributors, indicating high relevance and influence in recent research. As a result, Figure 8 illustrates the evolving landscape of research influence in shoreline change and future prediction studies, with both long-standing contributors like Leatherman and newer researchers like Turner, Harley and Plant playing crucial roles in advancing the field.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Local Impact of Journals: H Index Analysis
The Hirsch index (H index), introduced by J.E. Hirsch, assesses academic performance by accounting for both the number of publications and the number of citations, indicating how many papers have been cited at least an equivalent number of times (Hirsch, 2005). Figure 9 presents the local impact of various academic journals in shoreline research, measured by their H index. The Journal of Coastal Research has the highest local impact, with an H index of 13, indicating its prominent role in publishing influential papers in the field. Coastal Engineering follows with an H index of 10, underscoring its significance in engineering-related shoreline studies. Marine Geology ranks third, with an H index of 7, demonstrating its influence in geology-related shoreline research. Other journals such as International Journal of Remote Sensing; Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science; Geomorphology; Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Ocean & Coastal Management; Remote Sensing of Environment; and Environmental Monitoring and Assessment have lower H indices (ranging from 3 to 5), reflecting their importance in the interdisciplinary aspects of shoreline research. As a result, several journals, such as the Journal of Coastal Research and Coastal Engineering, have achieved high H indices in the field of shoreline research. This can be attributed to their long-standing presence, consistent publication of influential studies, and specialization in key areas such as coastal processes, remote sensing, and environmental management. Their inclusion in major citation databases, interdisciplinary relevance, and broad accessibility have enhanced their visibility and citation frequency, contributing to their strong academic impact over time.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Word Cloud
Index terms are generated by a computer algorithm based on frequently used terms in document titles, reference lists, and keywords (Yildirim, Rahman, and Singh, 2022). Figure 10 presents a word cloud that visualizes the most frequently used terms in research related to shoreline studies, highlighting key themes and areas of focus. The most prominent terms, such as remote sensing, shoreline change, and coastal erosion, indicate a central role in the contemporary research. This issue demonstrates that remote sensing techniques are widely used to analyze shoreline change and coastal erosion. For example, Chu et al. (2006) analyzes the erosion and accretion patterns of the Yellow River Delta using remote sensing data from 1976 to 2000.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
The terms erosion, DSAS, Landsat, and accretion also appear prominently in the word cloud, reflecting emphasis on shoreline monitoring techniques and coastal change detection methodologies. In recent years, various studies have been conducted using the DSAS tool and Landsat images to determine shoreline accretion and erosion rates. For instance, Bera and Maiti (2019) analyzed shoreline erosion and accretion rates in the Sundarbans from 1975 to 2017 using Landsat images and the DSAS tool.
Other significant terms include coastal management, sea-level rise, and GIS, underscoring the interdisciplinary nature of studies that combine geospatial analysis with coastal dynamics. For example, Rao et al. (2009) evaluated the vulnerability of the Andhra Pradesh coast to eustatic sea-level rise by analyzing five physical variables and developing a coastal vulnerability index using the ArcGIS program. The word cloud also highlights terms like shoreline variability, beach nourishment, shoreline prediction, and sediment transport, which point to the practical applications of these studies in managing and mitigating coastal hazards. For instance, Benedet et al. (2004) linked beach morphology with coastal processes by analyzing long-term wave statistics, aerial photography, and sediment data from Florida’s Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Less frequent but still relevant terms such as photogrammetry, linear regression, Google Earth Engine, and applications illustrate the range of methods employed in shoreline research. As a result, the word cloud indicates a strong focus on shoreline change, remote sensing, and coastal erosion as the primary themes in this body of research.
Thematic Map of Density and Centrality
Figure 11 represents the intellectual structure and development of research themes in a specific scientific field through coword analysis. The map is divided into four quadrants based on two axes: centrality (horizontal axis) and density (vertical axis). Centrality indicates how important or relevant a theme is to the overall field, whereas density reflects how well developed or cohesive a theme is internally. In the upper-right quadrant are the motor themes, which are both highly relevant to the field and well developed. These themes, such as “erosion, GIS, and accretion,” are considered the driving forces of the research domain. In the upper-left quadrant are the niche themes, such as “forecasting and shoreline prediction.” These are also well developed but are more specialized and less connected to the broader field. In contrat, the lower-left quadrant contains emerging or declining themes, like “wave climate and coastal management,” which are either gaining initial interest or losing prominence and development. Finally, in the lower-right quadrant are the basic themes, including frequently used but still underdeveloped concepts such as “remote sensing, DSAS, shoreline change, and Google Earth Engine.” These themes are central to the field’s foundation but require further academic development. Each colored bubble on the map represents a thematic cluster of related keywords, with the bubble size indicating the frequency or impact of that theme in the literature. The map as a whole provides a strategic overview of the research landscape, helping scholars identify key areas of focus, recognize emerging trends, and uncover gaps that may warrant future investigation.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Network Map
Figure 12 presents a keyword co-occurrence network map that visually illustrates the relationships and thematic structures within the literature on shoreline studies. Each node in the figure represents a keyword, with the size of the node indicating the frequency of the term’s appearance across the analyzed publications. Prominent terms such as remote sensing, coastal erosion, and shoreline change appear as the largest nodes, suggesting they are central and frequently used concepts in the field. The map is divided into color-coded clusters, each representing a group of closely related keywords. For instance, the red cluster centers around terms such as coastal erosion, shoreline change rates, DSAS, and sea-level rise, highlighting a thematic focus on erosion processes and long-term environmental changes. The green cluster includes terms like remote sensing, photogrammetry, and shoreline, indicating a strong methodological emphasis on geospatial tools for monitoring coastal dynamics. The orange cluster relates to coastal management and includes keywords such as accretion, GIS, and beach nourishment, reflecting applied aspects of shoreline stabilization and planning. Smaller clusters, such as the purple one containing shoreline change rate, shoreline prediction and India, point to region-specific or emerging research areas. A separate brown cluster featuring regression and linear suggests statistical modeling as a supporting analytical approach. The pink cluster highlights a thematic focus on satellite-based coastal monitoring and the use of water indices, featuring keywords such as Landsat and MNDWI, the acronym for the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index. As a result, the figure highlights the interdisciplinary nature of shoreline research, combining environmental science, geospatial technology, and coastal management themes.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Time Period Analysis
Figure 13 displays the evolution of key themes in shoreline change and future prediction research across three periods: 1991–2001, 2002–12, and 2013–22. The figure highlights the shifting focus of research topics over time, with increasing emphasis on technological approaches. During the earliest period (1991–2001), the main themes were coastal erosion and erosion, suggesting that early research primarily focused on understanding and documenting these physical processes. This foundational work laid the groundwork for subsequent studies. In the 2002–12 period, there is a notable expansion of research themes, with the introduction of shoreline change and remote sensing and continued focus on coastal erosion and erosion. The rise of remote sensing during this decade indicates the growing importance of technological methods in shoreline research. It reflects a shift toward more data-driven approaches in tracking and analyzing shoreline changes and erosion patterns. The most recent period (2013–22) shows continued dominance of remote sensing as a central research theme, alongside the emergence of new technologies such as GIS, Landsat, and satellite imagery. These themes reflect increased reliance on geospatial tools and satellite data for monitoring shoreline changes and predicting future shoreline position. Erosion remains a significant topic, but its centrality is complemented by these newer technologies, indicating an integrated approach to understanding and managing coastal environments. As a result, this timeline demonstrates a clear trend toward the adoption of advanced remote sensing and GIS tools in shoreline change and future prediction research, highlighting the technological evolution of the field over the past three decades.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
Factorial Analysis
Figure 14 presents a thematic map based on the clustering and spatial distribution of keywords, illustrating the conceptual structure of research in the field of shoreline change and future prediction studies. Each cluster is color coded, with its positioning on the two-dimensional plane representing the relationship and thematic proximity between keywords. The red cluster, located near the center, encompasses core research terms such as shoreline change, remote sensing, coastal evolution, Landsat, and GIS, indicating that this group represents the central and most developed theme in the field. The green cluster, found in the upper-left quadrant, includes terms like shoreline model, prediction, and India, highlighting a research focus on modeling and regional applications of shoreline change analysis. The blue cluster on the far right features terms such as beach nourishment, accretion, coastal zone management, and hazards, suggesting this theme is more specialized and policy oriented, with applications in coastal planning and hazard mitigation. Meanwhile, the purple cluster in the lower-left quadrant contains keywords like coastline change, remote, and change detection, reflecting a more technical and foundational aspect of coastal monitoring using remote sensing tools. In conclusion, this figure reveals the multidimensional nature of the research landscape, with central themes clustered around technological methods and broader applications branching into regional, managerial, and predictive domains.


Citation: Journal of Coastal Research 41, 6; 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25-00006.1
DISCUSSION
The bibliometric analysis highlights the significant evolution of shoreline change and future prediction research over the past three decades, with a notable increase in research output since the early 2000s. This rise can be attributed to advancements in geospatial technologies, particularly remote sensing and GIS, which have revolutionized the ability to monitor and predict shoreline changes. The use of tools like DSAS has enhanced the precision of shoreline monitoring and forecasting, allowing for more accurate coastal management strategies. One of the most important findings is the shift toward predictive modeling in shoreline research, with a growing emphasis on future shoreline positions in response to coastal erosion and sea-level rise. Studies focusing on forecasting and prediction, especially those that use multispectral satellite imagery, have become increasingly prevalent. This reflects the broader global concern with climate change impacts on coastal regions, emphasizing the need for proactive mitigation measures. The analysis also underscores the interdisciplinary nature of shoreline change research. The network analyses revealed strong collaborations among fields such as environmental science, engineering, and geospatial technology. This integration highlights the complexity of shoreline dynamics, which require a holistic approach to fully understand and address the challenges posed by natural and anthropogenic forces. Furthermore, the growing citation density of newer articles suggests that recent studies are gaining recognition faster than older publications. This is because of the increasing accessibility of digital platforms, enabling rapid dissemination of research findings. It is also indicative of the expanding research community focused on coastal resilience and sustainability, which is vital given the urgency of coastal zone management in the face of rising sea levels and intensifying storm events. The top cited articles predominantly emphasize the application of remote sensing for shoreline detection and monitoring. The dominance of such technologies in the field indicates that remote sensing has become a foundational tool for studying coastal processes, enabling researchers to capture high-resolution, multitemporal data across large spatial scales. However, although remote sensing provides a powerful tool for detection, it also raises challenges related to data accuracy and consistency, particularly in different geographic and environmental contexts. Addressing these challenges will be essential for improving the reliability of future predictions. Moreover, the thematic evolution of research in this field demonstrates that although foundational studies on coastal erosion and accretion remain influential, newer themes such as shoreline variability, GIS-based modeling, and prediction techniques are emerging. These emerging themes are reflective of the growing need to not only understand past and present shoreline changes but also to anticipate future changes under various climate scenarios.
The review studies collectively underscore a notable global advancement in shoreline change research over the past few decades, propelled by climate change impacts, anthropogenic pressures, and technological progress. Ankrah, Monteiro, and Madureira (2022) and Rahman, Crawford, and Islam (2022) both report a steady increase in global research output, with a concentration of scholarly contributions from developed countries such as the United States and Spain. This trend reflects the broader availability of resources and institutional capacities in these nations, enabling the application of increasingly sophisticated tools such as remote sensing, GIS, and DSAS. However, Ankrah, Monteiro, and Madureira (2022) emphasize the underrepresentation of developing countries in collaborative research, pointing to the need for more inclusive global networks to bridge the knowledge gaps. A more technical perspective is offered by Cavalli (2024), who confirms the viability of remote data in mapping and monitoring a range of coastal phenomena. Findings highlight the widespread use of integrated methodologies, particularly the merging of multisource datasets, validation processes, and model-based analysis, as essential for fulfilling spatial, temporal, and thematic requirements in coastal research. In addition, Apostolopoulos and Nikolakopoulos (2021) provide important insight into the practical tools and datasets most commonly employed in the field. Their meta-analysis reveals the dominance of freely available Landsat imagery and ArcMap software, particularly because of the accessibility of the DSAS tool, as critical resources for shoreline evolution analysis. In addition, their study notes limited use of high-resolution satellite data because of cost constraints, despite their potential to enhance spatial accuracy.
Building upon the findings of previous review studies, this study offers a broader and more future-oriented perspective on the evolution of shoreline change research. Although earlier studies mainly emphasize the growth of research output, the adoption of remote sensing and GIS technologies, and the increasing use of accessible tools like DSAS, this study distinguishes itself by highlighting a critical shift toward predictive modeling. This transition represents an evolution from traditional, reactive shoreline monitoring approaches to more proactive and accurate forecasting systems. Furthermore, this study underscores the interdisciplinary nature of modern shoreline research and the rising importance of global collaboration, aligning with previous findings but also extending them by pointing to future research directions. Despite acknowledging limitations such as database scope and citation analysis, this study makes a significant contribution to the literature by synthesizing current trends and offering a roadmap for integrating advanced technologies into sustainable coastal management strategies.
CONCLUSIONS
This study represents the key quantitative findings of the bibliometric analysis conducted on 2068 shoreline change and future prediction studies published between 1991 and 2022. The analysis covers publication trends, citation metrics, dominant research themes, author contributions, and journal distributions derived from the 100 most cited articles. The publication trend of the study indicates a general upward rise from 1991 to 2022, with a notable peak in 2010 (nine publications). This rise in output during the late 2000s likely aligns with the broader integration of geospatial technologies such as GIS and remote sensing into shoreline change studies. Following a relatively stable period through the 2010s, the number of publications began to decline after 2019, with a noticeable drop between 2020 and 2022. This recent decrease may be attributed to the global disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, older publications demonstrated a higher total citation count (mean of 159.3 for 1991–2001), whereas recent studies (2013–22) displayed a significantly higher citation density (mean of 12.61), suggesting faster impact accumulation. A moderate positive correlation (r = 0.35) was observed between publication age and total citation count, whereas citation density showed a strong negative correlation with age (r = −0.6), indicating a faster citation rate for newer articles. The top three categories for the 100 most cited articles were geosciences multidisciplinary (44), environmental sciences (32), and oceanography (24). Remote sensing also had a significant share (18), emphasizing the technological orientation of contemporary shoreline research. The most influential articles were predominantly published in the Journal of Coastal Research. Dolan, Fenster, and Holme (1991) received the highest number of citations (413), followed by Crowell, Leatherman, and Buckley (1991), with 398 citations. These studies focused on methodological innovations in shoreline mapping and error analysis, underscoring the central role of spatial tools such as DSAS. I.L. Turner emerged as the most productive author, with 5 contributions among the top 100 articles. Other frequently contributing authors included M.A. Davidson, S.P. Leatherman, and R.A. Morton. The network analyses indicated strong interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly among researchers in environmental science, engineering, and spatial analysis. The Journal of Coastal Research had the highest representation (13 articles) and the highest H index (13), followed by Coastal Engineering and Marine Geology. These journals facilitated the dissemination of both applied and theoretical studies on shoreline dynamics, predictive modeling, and geotechnical analysis. Keyword co-occurrence analysis revealed core themes such as shoreline change, remote sensing, and coastal erosion. A thematic map indicated that GIS, erosion, and accretion are motor themes, whereas prediction and forecasting were categorized as niche but well-developed themes. Time period analysis showed a progression from erosion-focused studies (1991–2001) to remote sensing and GIS-based themes in recent years.
This bibliometric study has certain limitations that should be taken into account when interpreting the results. The analysis was based solely on data obtained from the WoS database. This decision occurred because the WoS database maintains high indexing standards and provides methodological consistency for bibliometric analyses. However, this may result in the exclusion of some relevant studies found in Scopus, Google Scholar, or other international databases.
In addition, because the nature of citation analysis is time dependent, it may be difficult to fairly evaluate recently published studies that could be scientifically influential but have not yet received sufficient citations. In particular, this situation may fail to fully reflect the visibility and impact of publications in fields that use current technologies, such as GIS and remote sensing. In addition, authors’ self-citations can artificially inflate citation counts, which may introduce bias into the analysis results. Such factors may partially affect the objectivity of the study. In future research, the integration of multiple databases and the filtering of self-citation effects could help to achieve more comprehensive and balanced results.
In addition to these methods, the diversity and quality of the technological tools used directly affect the scope of the research findings. In recent years, there has been a significant transformation in the methods and technologies used in shoreline change and future predication research. The literature in this area indicates that for an extended period, research has been predominantly based on tools like GIS, remote sensing, and DSAS. However, moving beyond the traditional approach in which these methods have been prominent, the high accuracy offered by artificial intelligence–supported studies in modeling coastal morphology, predicting coastal erosion trends, and analyzing temporal shoreline changes reveals a noteworthy trend in the literature (Adusumilli et al., 2024; Park and Song, 2024). As a result, alongside traditional technologies used in shoreline change studies, the rise of artificial intelligence–focused research is a significant development in terms of highlighting the evolution of the field. The presentation of this trend through bibliometric analysis not only evaluates the current state but also provides a guiding perspective for future research directions.

Flow chart of the bibliometric analysis process for shoreline change and future prediction studies.

Bibliometric workflow diagram. Source: Adapted from Aria and Cuccurulla (2017).

Annual number of shoreline change research publications (1991–2022) among the top 100 most cited articles.

Relationship between age of publication, number of citations, and citation density for the top 100 most cited articles in shoreline change research: (a) Relationship between age of publication and total number of citations; (b) Relationship between age of publication and citation density (average number of citations per year).

Distribution of research articles across the most relevant scientific journals in shoreline change studies.

Three-field plot highlighting title term (TI_TM), leading authors (AU), and research descriptors (DE) in shoreline studies.

Most relevant authors and their contribution frequency in shoreline change and prediction research.

Author’s production over time, publication trends, and citation impact of key contributors in shoreline change and future prediction research.

Local impact assessment of academic journals in coastal and environmental sciences based on publication performance and H-Index.

Word cloud visualization of key themes and methodologies in shoreline change and future prediction research.

Thematic map of shoreline change research: classification based on centrality and density. Note: Top Right Quadrant: Plays a central role in the research field and typically represents core topics that drive scientific progress. Bottom Right Quadrant: Represents the foundational components of the research field and serves as a starting point for other studies. Bottom Left Quadrant: Represents either emerging areas with potential for development or declining topics that have lost relevance in the literature. Top Left Quadrant: Targets specialized topics that have been explored in depth but have limited connections to the broader research domain.

A network map illustrating the co-occurrence relationships between keywords in shoreline change research. Note: Node size reflects keyword frequency, while link thickness represents the strength of co-occurrence. Colors indicate thematic clusters identified through clustering algorithms.

Temporal evolution of dominant themes in shoreline change and prediction research: 1991–2001, 2002–2012, and 2013–2022.

Two-dimensional cluster-based representation of key themes in the shoreline change and prediction literature.

Graphical abstract.
Contributor Notes
